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Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations After 9/11

Zubia Ikram

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations in the past have experienced ebb and flow and have hardly been cordial. However, the post-9/11 scenario offered an opportunity to Pakistan to reconsider its Afghan policy and to renew its political and diplomatic ties with its western neighbour. Since President Hamid Karzai became the head of the Afghan interim government in 2001, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been an relatively friendly terms with each other. Although some of the members of the Karzai administration criticize Pakistan's role in the US-led war against terrorism and accuse it of interfering in Afghanistan's internal matters, the two governments seem to be determined to resolve their past differences and cooperate with each other in the war against terrorism.

Diplomatic relations

Pakistan and Afghanistan have been engaged in regular diplomatic consultations since the Interim government was established in Afghanistan. President Karzai paid an official visit to Pakistan in February 2002. The visit was significant as it laid the foundation of renewed bilateral relations between the two states. Since then, the Afghan President has visited Pakistan four times an different occasions. President Pervez Musharraf paid a follow-up visit to Afghanistan in April 2002. During the visit, Pakistan announced 100 million dollars aid to Afghanistan to meet the challenges of reconstruction and rehabilitation in the country. President Karzai also sought Pakistan's support for the peaceful conduct of presidential and parliamentary polls, in October 2004 and September 2005 respectively, as there was a fear of incursions across the border to disrupt the election process. Pakistan assured Afghanistan of its all-out support, and to fulfill its commitment to peacekeeping in the country, it deployed almost 80,000 troops along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. President Musharraf was the ferst head of state to visit Afghanistan after the successful completion of the presidential elections.

There are a host of issues which affect bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Terrorism and cross-border infiltration

The problem of terrorism and cross-border infiltration tops policy matters between the two governments. Since Pakistan announced its support for the US-led coalition against terrorism, it has been facing an increase in terrorist activities within its own territory. It has been reported that Taliban and al Qaeda fugitives have crossed the border and taken refuge in the tribal areas of Pakistan. The Pakistan government launched military operations to hunt them down. The operations caused widespread anger among the tribesmen and, as a result, violent activities increased. Despite Pakistan's efforts to curb terrorist elements, Afghanistan blames Pakistan for not doing enough to tackle cross-border infiltration.

In order to curb the terrorist threat, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US formed a Tripartite Commission in 2003. The main task of the Commission was to coordinate military efforts in the US-led war against terrorism. It was believed that once the Commission was formed, there would be a decline in terrorist activities. However, it has not produced the expected results.

Drug trafficking

Afghanistan's booming drug industry poses a big threat to Pakistan. The Afghan refugees introduced the drug culture in Pakistan in the 1980s. Since then, Pakistan has been trying to eradicate this menace. In 2002, the security forces of both states agreed to enhance cooperation in the field of intelligente sharing to curb drug trafficking. A Counter-narcotics Working Group, comprising the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan has also been formed to facilitate discussion among the three parties an the narcotics issues.

Refugees

Pakistan has been hosting nearly three million Afghan refugees. After the downfall of the Taliban it was widely believed that the refugees living in Pakistan would return to their country. Instead, the Afghans kept coming to Pakistan due to economic hardships and the constant threat posed by the warring factions in Afghanistan. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Pakistan and Afghanistan signed an agreement in 2003 to repatriate Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. The three parties have been successful in the repatriation of a large number of refugees. However, the prospects of a complete repatriation seem to be bleak due to the unwillingness of refugees to return and the unstable situation in Afghanistan.

External factors

The presence of the US in Afghanistan was a compelling factor for Pakistan to reconsider its Afghan policy. True, Pakistan was under a compulsion to support the US in the war, but it availed of the opportunity to build its Image as an important ally of the US. However, the negative aspect is that despite its efforts to wipe out al Qaeda and the Taliban, both the US and Afghanistan suspect Pakistan of backeng the fugitives.

Afghanistan-India relations also have an impact an Pakistan's equation with Afghanistan. Even before 9/11, India had been supportive of the Northern Alliance and did not recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The prominence of the Northern Alliance in the newly elected government offered an opportunity to India to consolidate its ties with its traditional ally, Afghanistan. To maintain India's geo-strategy interests in the post-Taliban Afghanistan, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh paid an official visit to Afghanistan in September 2005. He was the ferst Indian leader in 30 years who visited Afghanistan. The last visit was paid by former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1976. The recent visit was seen as part of the Indian strategy to regain influence in Afghanistan that was lost during the Taliban era.

Pakistan maintains that the Indian intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), has been operating from Afghan soil and instigating terrorist activities in Pakistan. Although Afghanistan has denied the presence of any RAW agents an its soil and has assured Pakistan that its territory would not be used against Pakistan, the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan is an alarming factor for Pakistan.

Economic relations

The renewed bilateral diplomatic and political relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan auger well for establishing sound economic relations. The current Pakistan-Afghanistan bilateral trade stands at one billion dollars against three million dollars in 2002. The formation of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Economic Commission (JEC) in 2002 has ofl'ered tremendous opportunities to both states to boost their bilateral trade. Pakistan signed its last Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) agreement in 1965 and now the formation of the JEC has made it possible for both states to re-examine their trade ties and formulate plans to strengthen economic collaboration.

Pakistan and Afghanistan have taken various steps to consolidate their economic relations. The two states:

agreed to revive the transit trade agreement;
signed an investment protection treaty to create an investment friendly environment;
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the construction of highways in Afghanistan with the collaboration of Pakistani and Afghan contractors;
agreed to open branches of Pakistani and Afghan banks in Pakistan and Afghanistan respectively;
agreed to start constructing a railway line between Chaman and Spin Boldak and between Chaman and Kandahar to boost trade.

On its part, Pakistan:

decided to reduce the negative list of six items under the transit trade agreement;
agreed to open a trade route in Waziristan to facilitate transit trade;
converted 100 million dollars aid to Afghanistan into a grant;
announced the opening of ten more entry points an the Pakistan Afghanistan border;
set up nine additional custom stations in the border areas;
granted 100 million dollars to refurbish schools and hospitals in Afghanistan;
decided to set up a warehouse, and heavy vehicle terminals at the border.

These moves indicate that Pakistan wants to utilize all possible resources to augment its trade with Afghanistan. Along with Turkmenistan, the two states have been engaged in discussions over the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) gas pipeline project. This is a major step towards promoting Pakistan-Afghanistan bilateral trade.

Following the 9/11 incidents and the resultant environment in the region, the interdependence of Afghanistan and Pakistan has followed an upward trend. The problems which both the countries share and the points of convergence an major issues, especially terrorism, make cooperation and regular consultation an imperative element in their bilateral relations. The strategic equation between Pakistan and Afghanistan compels the two states towards maintaining friendly relations. Afghanistan has strategic significance for Pakistan as a gateway to Central Asia. Now, with an entirely new political set-up, the future relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan could be one of close economic collaboration.