Home > Regionen > Europa > Bulgarien > Dokumente > Sociological study on the topi...

Sociological study on the topic:"Bulgaria and NATO: dynamics of the public opinion(1999-2001)"

Cyrus Salimi-Asl, Eric Wrasse und Gereon Schuch

The sociological study on the topic "Bulgaria and NATO: dynamics of the public opinion (1999-2001)" was conducted by the Institute of Sociology to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences by am order of the Public Relations Department in the Ministry of Defense.

The data are collected by using the method individual interview by the inquiry polling network of the Institute of Sociology to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.

The quotations have a national representation with a realized volume respectively 1191 persons in 2000, and 1089 persons in 2001.

RESULTS

The preferences of the Bulgarians concerning the foreign political guarantees for the national security

 

The public opinion about Bulgaria’s membership on NATO as a foreign political guarantee of the national security of the country is an object of many comparative studies after 1998 aimed at following the dynamics of the public opinion and assessing the basic factors which influence their formation. The persons who were subjected to the study had the possibility to choose one possible alternative of guaranteeing the national security of the country among membership of Bulgaria in NATO and WEU, signing a defense union with Russia, signing bilateral treaties with our neighboring countries and preserving neutrality.

Which are the basic trends in the public opinion during the last three years?

The first tendency is related to the steady growth of the share of people who prefer Bulgaria guarantee its security by means of full membership in the Euro-Atlantic defense structures. In the period 1999-2001 this growth is expressed by 13.2 points. In the beginning of the 21 -st century more than half of the Bulgarians (51.5%) point out as the best guarantee for the national security of the country the full membership of Bulgaria in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and in the West European Union (WEU). This fact could be explained by reaching a political consensus for Bulgaria’s membership on the Alliance. In line with that, the increasing confidence in NATO, as a guarantee for Bulgaria’s national security, can be explained by the role of the Alliance as a stabilizing factor on the Balkans through the operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Macedonia. Last but not least, the Bulgarian public opinion was influenced by the concrete commitments that the Alliance assumed with Bulgaria’s security during the Kosovo crisis, as well as at the time when the country joined the anti-terrorist coalition after the attacks against the USA on 11 September 2001.

The second tendency is outlined as we analyze the public opinion about the possible foreign political guarantees for Bulgaria'’ security, is related to the decrease in the share of persons who think that the country could not rely on foreign political guarantees for its security. At the end of 2001 less than one fifth of the Bulgarian citizens (18.7%) whom we could conditionally define as "pessimists", maintain that position. Although this tendency is not so clearly expressed and the fluctuations and hesitations in the course of different studies are considerable, the share of these citizens has decreased by 8.8 points in comparison with February 1999. The analysis of the data from the studies show that the "pessimists" are more often people having lower educational status and possessing more weakly expressed interest in the issues related to defense and security: a fact that explains to a certain extent these fluctuations and hesitations.

The third tendency is related to the decrease in the share of the supporters of Bulgaria’s neutrality. In December 2001 we measured the lowest support in the recent years for the idea Bulgaria to declare itself as a neutral country. The supporters of this idea are one tenth from the persons under study 910.1%). The analysis of the data shows a rapid decrease of the support for the neutrality after the peak in the course of the war in Kosovo in May 1999.

With regards to the variant of signing bilateral treaties with our neighboring countries, a version preferred as the best one for guaranteeing the national security by 11.8% of the Bulgarians, we cannot speak about an outlined tendency. In any case, the supporters of that idea have increased in the course of the period February 1999 - December 2001. Probably this can be explained with the active bilateral and multilateral military cooperation among the Balkan countries during the last years.

The smallest is the group of people who think that Bulgaria can guarantee its security by signing a defense union with Russia - 7.8%. The fluctuations and hesitations are the smallest with them and the differences shown during different studies are insignificant from the point of view of statistics.

In the course of the analysis a series of statistically significant interdependencies between the opinion of the persons about the different variants for guaranteeing the national security offered for assessment, and their social-economical status, their political orientation, their place of residence, their level of education etc. These interdependencies can be summarized in the following manner:

The supporters of the policy of the integration of Bulgaria in the Euro-Atlantic security structures are predominantly young people, having a higher level of education, in most cases they live in Sofia or in the bigger cities of the country. Most often they have a higher living standards than the rest and their political orientation is to the right, and center - to the right.

The supporters of the variant of signing bilateral treaties with our neighboring countries with their social-demographic characteristic features, as a group are closer to the group of the persons who support Bulgaria’s membership in NATO and WEU. This could be explained by the fact that two of our neighboring countries are NATO member states and Macedonia and Romania are active members in the Partnership for Peace initiative.

The supporters of the idea of preserving the neutrality most often are of age 40 -55 years having a comparatively high educational and social status. They most often live in the big cities and in the capital of the country. Their political orientation is center - left. Women more often than men support the idea of preserving the neutrality.

The supporters of the idea of signing a defense union with Russia most often are people aged above 60 years who live predominantly in the villages and in the smaller towns. They have a lower educational and social status (pensioners, unemployed, housewives, persons of low income and persons who possess no property). This idea is supported mostly by people having left and extreme left political orientation.

Finally, the group of the so called "pessimists" consists most often of people who have a lower educational status, low living standards, they live predominantly in villages and in the smaller towns of the country. In general, the problems of security and defense are not of a first degree importance for these persons.

Public opinion about the policy of Bulgaria for integration in the Euro-Atlantic security and defense structures and about the international military cooperation

 

Data are provided concerning the opinion of the Bulgarians specifically about the membership in the country in NATO. The data are collected in the course of actual up-to-date national representative public opinion polls conducted in the period 2000 - 2001. The analysis of the acquired data shows that more than three quarters of the Bulgarians (76.9%) have a positive opinion about the policy of accession of the country to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The greatest is the share of the persons under study who "support fully" the membership of the country in the Alliance (40.1%). In addition to that, more than one third (36.8%) point out that "they would rather support" the accession of Bulgaria to NATO.

Every tenth Bulgarian (9.4%) declares he/she is "fully against", and approximately one seventh part of the population (13.6%) point out they "are more than not against" Bulgaria’s accession to the Alliance.

The public support for the membership of Bulgaria in NATO in December 2001 has grown by 12.1 points in comparison with the one in May 2000 totally in the two categories "I fully support" and "I would rather support".

Distribution in percentages of the answer to the question "We offer to your attention some statements which describe eventual consequences of Bulgaria’s membership in NATO. We ask you to point out with which ones of them you agree, and with which ones you disagree"

 

The analysis of the provided data shows that in the mass consciousness the positive expectations for the accession of Bulgaria to NATO prevail. They are related first of all to the increase in the international authority of the country, with the strengthening of the national security and the military power of Bulgaria, to the acceleration of the process of our integration in the European Union and to the modernization of the armament and equipment which the Bulgarian army possesses at present. These statements are supported with a greater or lesser explicitness by approximately three quarters of the Bulgarian population.

The specific expression of the many-sided and multi- aspect military cooperation in Southeastern Europe between NATO member countries and countries participating in the Partnership for Peace Initiative, was the establishment of the Multinational Peace Force Southeastern Europe (MPFSEE). How do the Bulgarians assess that act?

One half of the persons under study in 2001 assess positively (49.0%) the establishment of the Multinational Peace Force Southeastern Europe (MPFSEE).

The adversaries of this initiative are only 4.5% In comparison with February 1999 we register growth in the approval by almost one quarter (22.3 points). At the same time, the share of the persons who are not interested in the establishment and in the activities of the Multinational Peace Force Southeastern Europe (MPFSEE) has decreased by one fifth (21.1 points). This is a sure indication that the further development of the many-sided military cooperation in Southeastern Europe will receive more and more growing approval on the part of the Bulgarians. The relative share of the people who have on opinion on that issue and of these who are against is preserved almost without any change. This could mean that the interest of the Bulgarian citizens in this type of military cooperation grows gradually.

 

The membership of Bulgaria an NATO - advantages and commitments

The membership of Bulgaria in collective defense system like NATO is related to important advantages such as guaranteeing the national security, but it is connected as well with definite commitments which the country must make as a part of this system. To what extent is the public opinion in Bulgaria disposed and ready to support those commitments? What is the dynamics of the public opinion during the last three years? The opinion of the Bulgarians with regards to these probable commitments was measured in two consecutive studies / public opinion polls having a national representation which were conducted in February 199 and in December 2001.

 

Public opinion about some eventual commitments of the country as a future NATO member

(February 1999, December 2001, represented in percentages)

 

The participation of Bulgarian troops in NATO multinational forces for conducting peace support operations is the most highly approved indicator. The approval of that activity marks an increase by15.9 points for the period 1999-2001. This could be explained by the already accumulated experience of several years of our contingents in SFOR and KFOR and by the excellent performance of the Bulgarian servicemen in these operations.

Another factor which has probably influenced favorably the public opinion about the participation of Bulgarian troops in NATO multinational forces for conducting peace support operations is the establishment and the successful exercises of the Multinational Peace Force Southeastern Europe (MPFSEE) whose Headquarters is situated in Plovdiv.

The increase of the share of the national budget allocated for defense enjoys also comparatively high approval on the part of the citizens, thus it has grown by 20.1 points in comparison with 1999. The measured result could probably be explained with the gradual shedding of illusions that the lack of a military threat for Bulgaria at the present moment means full security and serene existence. The trial on which the country was subjected during the Kosovo crisis and during the terror attacks against the USA in September 2001, probably acted as a sobering experience for many Bulgarians and the latter events helped them become aware of the fact that defense expenditures cannot be further reduced and they cannot live with the hope that somebody else must take care of our national security. At the same time, the prevailing approval of the increase of the defense expenditures is a good prerequisite for the successful continuation of the military reform and for the implementation of the Membership Action Plan for the membership of Bulgaria in NATO.

Almost half of the Bulgarians (47.9%) approve of conducting planned flights of NATO aircraft over Bulgaria. This result deserves special attention because it is one of the indicators which in the previous public opinion polls/studies traditionally received a high disapproval. At the end of 2001 the share of the persons who approve of the planned overflight of NATO aircraft over Bulgaria has increased with one quarter (+24.9 points). This abrupt increase in the approval could be explained with the gradual shedding off of the prejudices and stereotypes on the part of the people. Apart from that, the flights of NATO aircraft over Bulgaria and the employment of Bulgarian military airports , as a part of the engagements that Bulgaria assumed as a partner of NATO, including the commitments of the country to the international antiterrorist coalition, became a practice during the last years.

In general, on all indicators offered for assessment (probable commitments of the country as a future NATO member), at the end of 2001, we register a considerable increase of the approval in comparison with February 1999. This could mean a gradual re-orientation of the people, their gradual becoming aware of the fact that we cannot rely on guarantees for our security and to endeavor after membership in a collective defense system without accepting the commitments as well resulting from this membership. Probably the experience that our country has already accumulated from our participation in the initiative of NATO "Partnership for Peace" contributed to the better familiarization between the partners and to the change of the opinion of the Bulgarian citizens.

Quelle: http://www.md.government.bg/_en_/ sociological_study_1999_2001.html

bookmarken bei...