Fortsetzung: Economic sanctions as an instrument for promoting international peace and security, case of Iraq
Alice Coulter
Regional Stability
While Iraq’s current weapons capacity remains a highly debatable issue, there is little doubt as to the record of Saddam Hussein’s regime in pursuing WMD programmes and using such weapons in direct contravention of the 1925 Geneva Protocol.[28] In recognition of this, and in light of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, it seems fair to assume that, at least in recent history, Iraq has posed a real threat to regional security. Indeed, many of Iraq’s neighbouring countries gave support to the international coalition in the immediate aftermath of the invasion of Kuwait. More recently relations between the West (in particular US, Britain) and the Arab world have since come under growing pressure as a result of the sanctions regime. Since one of the main justifications for sanctions has been to ensure regional security, yet simultaneously they appear to be undermining international co-operation, this apparent contradiction needs to be explored. In other words, in the eyes of its neighbouring countries, does Iraq currently constitute a security threat to the region?
Kuwait, as the most recent victim of Iraqi external aggression, is an obvious candidate for supporting the containment of the Iraq. Iraqi claims regarding Kuwait and its territorial integrity still indicate the potential threat to the small country. Yet, in spite of these fears a small number of Kuwaiti voices are joining the call for ending the current sanctions and replacing it with something that specifically targets Hussein’s regime rather than the Iraqi people.[29] This sentiment is reflected throughout the region, with some of Iraq’s traditional enemies appearing to develop marginally warmer relations with Iraq and growing increasingly critical of the sanctions regime and its instigators. Public opinion in most Arab states is scandalised by the suffering of the Iraqi people and calls for the removal of sanctions are becoming more popular. "Even some Gulf leaders, the most prominent being Sheikh Zayad, president of the United Arab Emirates, have openly proposed that sanctions be ended".[30] How can this shift in perception be explained?
A key factor involved in declining regional support for sanctions against Iraq has already been touched upon. Regional concerns about the Arab-Israeli conflict, particularly in light of the recent upsurge in fighting there, are feeding scepticism about Western intervention in the region, and many Arab states appear to be overcoming domestic fears of Iraqi aggression in their growing unease about Western intervention. This shift in position may be a result of a number of factors, including: sanctions fatigue; unease with the perceived double standards of the West in their reactions to Israel and Iraq; and, the recognition that Iraq no longer poses a significant threat to the region.
Connected to the issue of the Arab-Israeli conflict is the negative perception of the US and Britain in the region. As fears of Iraqi aggression subside, and the impact of sanctions on innocent civilians is increasingly recognised, the US-driven policy towards Iraq increasingly resembles a classic David versus Goliath struggle, with Saddam Hussein being identified as a successful challenger to US domination. "As a result of this Anglo-American hostility against Iraq, there has also been a consequent reduction in animosity directed towards the person of Saddam Hussein. He has become, to some extent, a symbol of defiance of the West."[31] This perception has been promoted by ill-construed statements of Western leaders, in particular those of UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who’s likening of the sanctions regime to "keeping Saddam in his cage" has proved both simplistic and offensive.[32]
Another crucial consideration for regional leaders is the issue of regional stability. The loss of Iraq as a major player in the region has created a power vacuum. In particular many Arab states recognise the need for a counterbalance to Iran, and this position has traditional fallen to Iraq.[33] Iraq has also played a key role in the containment of Kurdish secessionism, a major concern for other Kurdish states, such as Turkey.[34] The prolonged duration of sanctions against Iraq has therefore led to increasing concerns about the long-term stability of the region.
In summary, regional concerns about stability, US interference and the hypocrisy of Western intervention, when combined with the sentiment that Iraq no longer constitutes a real security threat, have resulted in declining regional support for sanctions. This lack of regional support undermines American and British claims that one of the fundamental justifications for sanctions is the protection of regional security, and more importantly drives a wedge between intra-regional relations, which could have implications for future negotiations in the Middle East.
[28]Gunilla Flodén et al., Iraq: The UNSCOM Experience SIPRI Factsheet (October 1998) http://editors.sipri.se/pubs/Factsheet/unscom.html
[29] "Kuwaiti Paper: Lift Sanctions on Iraqi People," Agence France Presse (21 January 2001) http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/sanction/iraq1/ 2001/0122kwt.htm and Neil McFarquhar, "Arab Leaders End Meeting in Disarray Over Iraq," New York Times (29 March 2001) http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/sanction/iraq1/ 2001/0329summ.htm
[30] Volker Perthes, "Iraq Under Sanctions: A Regime Defiant," Royal Institute for International Affairs Middle East Programme Briefing Paper No. 40, http://www.riia.org/briefingpapers/bp49.html
[31] Doyle, "Sanctions," p. 178.
[32] Graham Usher, "Lion or Lap Dog?" Al-Ahram Weekly (24-30 December 1998) http://www.ahram.org.eg/weekly/1998/409/ir17.htm
[33] Doyle, "Sanctions," p. 179.
[34] Amatzia Baram, "Saddam Hussein Between his Power Base and the International Community," Middle East Review of International Affairs 4(4) (December 2000) http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2000/issue4/jv4n4a2.html Fortsetzung: Economic sanctions as an instrument for promoting international peace and security, case of Iraq
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